Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5605…83e2 other 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,594 (+27%) realized +$4,602 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%28W / 190L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,241
7 days+$3,954
14 days+$3,609
30 days+$4,320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$4,676
crypto 5% −$218
sports 3% +$352
world 3% −$497
economics 0% +$2
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +10.4% -0.1% 13% 13% +49.2%
≤30d 216 -6.7% -15.6% 12% 12% +13.6%
≤90d 216 -6.7% -15.6% 12% 12% +13.6%
all 218 -7.0% -15.9% 13% 13% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 13% +13.5%
10% -23.9% 12% +2.6%
15% -31.3% 12% -7.3%
20% -38.0% 12% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$631 vs −$70 · ×8.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$4,602
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses28 / 190
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage397d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 2 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $48 −$8 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $60 +$780 +1290%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $300 +$245 +82%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $82 +$168 +206%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $101 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $61 −$59 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $103 +$897 +874%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $82 +$488 +596%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $102 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $98 −$96 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 27 $42 −$41 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $50 −$49 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $101 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $98 −$98 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $50 −$49 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $101 −$98 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $102 −$99 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $101 −$98 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $98 −$95 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $50 +$650 +1290%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $51 −$49 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $60 −$58 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $102 −$99 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $102 −$99 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $58 −$57 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $103 +$897 +874%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $102 −$99 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $101 12h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $61 12h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 7¢ $60 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $82 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $298 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $0 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 27h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $82 27h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $82 27h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $102 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 35h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 35h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 35h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 36h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 36h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 36h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.50 · official $47.50 (match) · 943 history records