Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5605…2113 crypto 139 markets active 73d ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,786 (-22%) realized −$12,786 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%47W / 92L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$2,692
crypto 32% −$4,632
economics 13% −$391
other 13% −$5,100
politics 1% −$34
culture 0% −$133
sports 0% −$18
tech 0% +$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 14 -39.4% -45.2% 29% 14% -25.4%
all 139 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 28% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 28% -29.1%
10% -28.0% 24% -35.9%
15% -34.9% 22% -42.1%
20% -41.3% 18% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$199 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,786
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses47 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage281d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $3,000 +$277 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 31 $50 −$18 -36%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $16,714 −$3,713 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 28 $50 −$47 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 28 $150 +$64 +43%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $3,110 +$110 +4%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 21 $4,821 −$2,433 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 9AM ET Mar 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 20 $575 +$898 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 20 $90 −$55 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 13 $15 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 13 $25 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $100 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $43 −$39 -92%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $221 −$178 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 20 $10 +$17 +172%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 13 $350 −$38 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 13 $226 −$54 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $250 +$14 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $2,556 −$2,505 -98%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $7,746 −$287 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 8AM ET Dec 23 $221 −$221 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 23? Dec 23 $866 −$865 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 22 $60 +$102 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 22 $35 +$42 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22? Dec 22 $538 +$94 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12PM ET Dec 22 $350 −$350 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 20? Dec 22 $1,250 −$370 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 20? Dec 22 $2,430 −$309 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 21? Dec 22 $1,094 −$1,094 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 22 $75 +$67 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 21? Dec 22 $250 +$250 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 21? Dec 22 $741 +$549 +74%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 20 $100 −$49 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 19? Dec 20 $100 +$69 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12AM ET Dec 20 $42 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Dec 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Dec 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Dec 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Dec 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,892 72d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,385 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $32 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $50 76d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $938 77d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,000 77d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,000 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $50 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $150 79d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $3,522 79d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $3,597 79d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $3,997 80d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,498 80d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,936 80d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $830 81d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $1,106 81d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2,720 81d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $500 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 88¢ $3,220 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 85¢ $3,110 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $707 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $2,301 85d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $102 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $5,063 86d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $203 87d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1,079 88d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $749 91d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 91d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $504 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 635 history records