Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5605…a9ef sports 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,820 (+2%) realized +$4,127 · open −$307
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate91%134W / 13L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$1,178per market
Trades / day79.2pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,579
7 days+$1,991
14 days+$3,787
30 days+$3,617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2,032
sports 23% −$1,164
other 22% +$993
politics 16% +$973
crypto 4% +$408
tech 1% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -6.5% -15.4% 87% 15% -8.0%
≤30d 147 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 15% -7.6%
≤90d 147 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 15% -7.6%
all 147 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 15% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 15% -7.6%
10% -17.9% 5% -16.5%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 2% -24.5%
20% -33.1% 1% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,204) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$411 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2,585
Realized+$4,127
Unrealized−$307
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses134 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions12
Markets (closed)147 / 159
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1,178
Trades / day79.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $575 $575 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 62¢ 52¢ $596 $495 −$101 (-17%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $474 $448 −$26 (-5%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 67¢ 58¢ $500 $436 −$63 (-13%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $192 $188 −$4 (-2%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $143 $148 +$5 (+4%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $104 $120 +$16 (+16%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 91¢ 89¢ $91 $89 −$2 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 26¢ 22¢ $64 $53 −$11 (-17%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $27 $12 −$16 (-57%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 40¢ $108 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3,916 +$84 +2%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 22 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $270 +$30 +11%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $580 +$31 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,950 +$35 +1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,982 +$118 +6%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 21 $993 +$4 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $9,008 −$1,323 -15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,440 +$560 +16%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 20 $672 −$672 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,231 −$1,231 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $379 +$15 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6,592 +$408 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $637 +$41 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,378 +$21 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $1,932 +$42 +2%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 20 $965 −$965 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $573 +$33 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1,548 +$31 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,868 +$132 +3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $2,124 +$209 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $395 +$105 +27%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,355 +$45 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $442 +$4 +1%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,053 +$69 +6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $240 −$124 -52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,171 +$80 +4%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $6,183 +$722 +12%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $15,251 +$127 +1%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $460 +$40 +9%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,686 +$10 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $997 +$3 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $930 +$70 +8%
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) Jun 18 $975 +$25 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2,935 +$57 +2%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $445 +$55 +12%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 18 $1,358 +$38 +3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $252 +$3 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4,544 +$1,095 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $1,935 +$265 +14%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $469 +$20 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $824 +$53 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $19,785 +$1,309 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,937 +$3 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2,913 +$55 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,188 +$100 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $172 +$12 +7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $355 +$56 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $66 2h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 99¢ $3,960 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 98¢ $3,916 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $470 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $74 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $217 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $159 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $172 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $12 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $10 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $108 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 95¢ $380 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 95¢ $313 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 95¢ $51 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 95¢ $16 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $32 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $92 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $92 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $108 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $19 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $19 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $51 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $92 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $19 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $37 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 95¢ $19 9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $406 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $299 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $647 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,584.75 · official $2,584.75 (match) · 1256 history records