Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5605…23fe crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate51%33W / 32L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day135.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$17
world 4% −$2
other 2% −$1
tech 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -11.2% -19.7% 51% 9% -8.4%
≤30d 65 -11.2% -19.7% 51% 9% -8.4%
≤90d 65 -11.2% -19.7% 51% 9% -8.4%
all 65 -11.2% -19.7% 51% 9% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 9% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 8% -17.2%
15% -34.4% 5% -25.2%
20% -40.8% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses33 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day135.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $49 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $47 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $46 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $79 +$4 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 21 $1 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 21 $1 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 21 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 21, 9AM ET? Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 21, 8AM ET? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 21, 8AM ET? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 21, 8AM ET? Jun 21 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $41 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $52 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $49 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $47 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $46 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $43 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.79 · official $1.80 (match) · 160 history records