Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x5604…ba5c
world · 47 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$20 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage517d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 2 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? No 97¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $113 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 30 $7 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 28 $25 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 27 $3 $0 -6%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 27 $8 $0 -4%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $47 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $4 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 21 $34 −$1 -2%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Mar 20 $29 +$5 +18%
Akron vs. Toledo Mar 04 $30 −$1 -3%
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be betwe Mar 04 $26 +$4 +15%
Binghamton vs. NJIT Feb 16 $13 +$13 +100%
Cal Poly vs. CSU Fullerton Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the match between Ferencvaros and Viktoria Plzen end in a draw? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
James Madison vs. Georgia Southern Feb 14 $8 +$5 +61%
Will Celtic vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? Feb 13 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on February Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump attend the launch? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% +$1
politics 20% +$4
sports 14% +$16
other 13% −$2
economics 6% $0
crypto 4% −$1
culture 2% +$4
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $48 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $48 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $47 11h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $42 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $1 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $41 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $1 19h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $29 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $45 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $26 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $5 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $31 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.6% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 7 +1.1% -8.6% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 29 -0.6% -10.1% 34% 0% -9.7%
all 45 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 11% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 11% -7.9%
10% -21.7% 4% -16.7%
15% -29.3% 4% -24.7%
20% -36.2% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.46 · official $14.72 (match) · 155 history records