Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x5603…81d9 weather 1051 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$187 (+1%) realized +$167 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%910W / 89L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$776now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$21
14 days+$39
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 +1.1% -8.5% 95% 5% -8.8%
≤30d 475 +1.9% -7.8% 95% 6% -8.1%
≤90d 999 +5.4% -4.7% 91% 13% -8.4%
all 999 +5.4% -4.7% 91% 13% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 13% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -17.1%
15% -22.1% 2% -25.1%
20% -29.8% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$776
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses910 / 89
Open positions52
Markets (closed)999 / 1051
History coverage86d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 999 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? No 92¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? No 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? No 86¢ 96¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? No 90¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? No 92¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? No 90¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? No 94¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 18? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? No 93¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$6 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $40 18m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $40 44m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 95¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 95¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? SELL No 75¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $776.14 · official $775.30 (match) · 2823 history records