Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x5602…21de sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 537d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-16%) realized −$47 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$48
other 15% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 -35.3% -41.4% 12% 12% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 12% -26.1%
10% -47.0% 12% -33.1%
15% -52.2% 0% -39.6%
20% -56.8% 0% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage537d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 20 $89 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $10 $0 +0%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Oct 31 $81 +$22 +27%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Jan 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 31 $5 $0 -9%
Clippers vs. Spurs Dec 30 $39 −$39 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Dec 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 42¢ $89 117d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 42¢ $89 118d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 118d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 118d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 75¢ $10 125d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 125d
Ravens vs. Dolphins BUY Ravens 79¢ $81 231d
Clippers vs. Nuggets BUY Clippers 58¢ $9 526d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 534d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 534d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 534d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 534d
Clippers vs. Spurs BUY Clippers 47¢ $39 535d
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 34¢ $21 537d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.25 · official $44.25 (match) · 16 history records