trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $10,185 | $10,463 | +$278 (+3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $9,938 | $9,907 | −$31 (-0%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $6,739 | $6,960 | +$221 (+3%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $6,728 | $6,512 | −$216 (-3%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 9¢ | $5,247 | $5,278 | +$31 (+1%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $4,093 | $3,971 | −$122 (-3%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $3,272 | $3,179 | −$93 (-3%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $2,531 | $2,809 | +$278 (+11%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $410 | $0 | −$410 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $55,066 | +$139,642 | +254% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $1,705 | −$365 | -21% |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? | Apr 11 | $99 | +$2 | +2% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 29 | $2,940 | $0 | -0% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 14 | $3,127 | −$4 | -0% |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? | Jan 05 | $301 | −$69 | -23% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Jan 05 | $300 | −$19 | -6% |
| Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $10,719 | −$7,406 | -69% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $12,001 | −$1,282 | -11% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +253.6% | +219.9% | 100% | 100% | +219.9% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +82.3% | +64.9% | 50% | 50% | +217.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +55.5% | +40.7% | 67% | 33% | +217.2% |
| all | 9 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 22% | 11% | +129.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -3.7% | 11% | +129.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -12.9% | 11% | +107.5% |
| 15% | -21.3% | 11% | +87.4% |
| 20% | -29.1% | 11% | +69.1% |