Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55fe…f7f7 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$90 (-25%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -48.8% -53.6% 25% 25% -39.2%
≤30d 16 -48.8% -53.6% 25% 25% -39.2%
≤90d 16 -48.8% -53.6% 25% 25% -39.2%
all 16 -48.8% -53.6% 25% 25% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.6% 25% -39.2%
10% ← realistic here -58.1% 25% -45.0%
15% -62.1% 19% -50.3%
20% -65.8% 12% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$29 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $37 −$25 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $35 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$28 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$3 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $22 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $7 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $44 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $12 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $12 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records