Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55fa…8805 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$2
world 30% $0
politics 28% −$3
tech 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 24 -3.7% -12.8% 38% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 4% -9.5%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage459d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $11 $0 +4%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 06 $7 −$2 -23%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $2 −$1 -75%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $1 $0 -16%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 13h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 14h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 31d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 94¢ $0 188d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 335d
Will Walmart buy TikTok? SELL No 100¢ $12 362d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 395d
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? BUY No 99¢ $1 416d
Will Walmart buy TikTok? BUY No 96¢ $11 430d
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $12 430d
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? BUY No 99¢ $12 430d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes $0 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 98¢ $12 433d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $0 433d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $1 433d
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $15 433d
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? BUY No 99¢ $15 434d
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $15 438d
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $15 438d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? SELL No 98¢ $15 438d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? BUY No 98¢ $15 439d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $30.96 (match) · 63 history records