trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 33% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 40% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 24 | -3.7% | -12.8% | 38% | 4% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.8% | 4% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -21.2% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -28.8% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 25 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 23 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 23 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio | May 06 | $7 | −$2 | -23% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | Apr 19 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? | Apr 19 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 18 | $2 | −$1 | -75% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 11 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? | Apr 11 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day | Apr 10 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 07 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 05 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? | Apr 04 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? | Apr 03 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 30 | $13 | +$2 | +13% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | -16% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? | Mar 27 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? | Mar 27 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? | Mar 21 | $14 | $0 | +0% |