Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
55 0x55f8…f751 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%32W / 30L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$2
other 20% +$1
politics 17% +$1
sports 5% +$1
culture 4% +$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 15 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 0% -8.8%
all 62 +0.0% -9.5% 52% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.0%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses32 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage465d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 83¢ 80¢ $45 $43 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $63 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $83 +$3 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $16 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $86 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $1 $0 +7%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 07 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 05 $16 +$1 +6%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin attend Pope Francis' funeral? Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days Apr 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 16 $16 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $45 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $48 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $14 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $23 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $19 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.47 · official $43.20 (match) · 194 history records