Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55f8…baed crypto 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$241 (+26%) realized +$243 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%131W / 120L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day60.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$51
14 days+$47
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$200
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +12.8% +2.0% 52% 51% +4.1%
≤30d 251 +22.7% +11.0% 52% 50% +9.1%
≤90d 251 +22.7% +11.0% 52% 50% +9.1%
all 251 +22.7% +11.0% 52% 50% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.0% 50% +9.1%
10% ← realistic here +0.4% 45% -1.4%
15% -9.3% 39% -10.9%
20% -18.2% 30% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$243
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses131 / 120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage19d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day60.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 68¢ 36¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$7 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$13 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$8 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$11 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$14 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$11 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$10 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $3.79 · 1360 history records