Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55f6…e98f crypto 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$203 (+11%) realized +$229 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%41W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$46
other 17% −$129
world 4% −$33
sports 2% −$10
economics 2% −$20
politics 2% −$19
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -17.4% -25.3% 27% 25% -10.6%
≤30d 46 -5.7% -14.7% 30% 28% -10.2%
≤90d 73 -28.0% -34.8% 26% 25% -13.8%
all 171 -30.4% -37.0% 24% 23% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 23% -17.1%
10% -43.0% 22% -25.1%
15% -48.5% 20% -32.3%
20% -53.6% 16% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$6 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$229
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses41 / 130
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)171 / 191
History coverage169d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $134 −$125 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $107 +$104 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $43 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $43 −$40 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $44 −$40 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $49 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $65 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $54 −$44 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $43 −$20 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $44 +$106 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $75 +$182 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$34 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $43 −$20 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $43 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $54 +$67 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$21 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$11 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$11 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$8 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$10 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$14 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$34 +676%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +186%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +317%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.00 · official $168.26 (match) · 446 history records