Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55f5…f204 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$37 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$27
crypto 19% +$118
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.9% -7.8% 36% 36% +39.0%
≤30d 14 +1.9% -7.8% 36% 36% +39.0%
≤90d 14 +1.9% -7.8% 36% 36% +39.0%
all 14 +1.9% -7.8% 36% 36% +39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 36% +39.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 36% +25.7%
15% -24.7% 36% +13.6%
20% -32.1% 36% +2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$5 · ×8.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.72 per $1 lost it wins $4.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 46¢ 68¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+49%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner PlayTime $11 $1 −$10 (-95%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 28¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$53 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $166 +$98 +59%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $41 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 19 $5 +$18 +348%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $41 −$11 -27%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $45 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 22m
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 27m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $46 30m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $30 32m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 49¢ $34 35m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 29¢ $10 58m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 41¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime $1 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 51¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 55¢ $60 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 50¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 50¢ $38 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 24¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 44¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 15¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 52¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 18¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 32¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.56 · official $47.47 · 56 history records