Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55f4…4021 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$126 (-12%) realized −$127 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate53%49W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$167
14 days−$169
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$141
other 24% −$28
world 14% +$2
crypto 9% −$7
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -15.3% -23.3% 38% 38% -31.1%
≤30d 37 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 32% -28.5%
≤90d 92 -11.7% -20.1% 53% 28% -27.2%
all 92 -11.7% -20.1% 53% 28% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 28% -27.2%
10% -27.8% 25% -34.2%
15% -34.7% 23% -40.5%
20% -41.1% 18% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses49 / 43
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)92 / 96
History coverage41d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 78¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 54¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 73¢ 72¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$42 +165%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 +$8 +82%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +37%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$13 -67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $8 +$9 +121%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +103%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -35%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 −$47 -89%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -48%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 +$21 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$16 -52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$32 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$23 +442%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$9 -84%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 10 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $13 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $25 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $67 1h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $23 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 37¢ $25 3h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $6 4h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $2 4h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $17 10h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $3 11h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $69 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $16 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 26h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 28h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $0 28h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 28h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 1¢ $1 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 34h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $27 34h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.32 · official $184.32 (match) · 215 history records