Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55f4…0115 crypto 49 markets active 7d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$155 (-15%) realized −$156 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$176
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$66
other 19% −$110
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -17.4% -25.2% 64% 21% -20.7%
≤30d 47 -20.4% -27.9% 40% 28% -26.4%
≤90d 48 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 27% -26.3%
all 48 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 27% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 27% -26.3%
10% -34.7% 27% -33.3%
15% -41.0% 17% -39.8%
20% -46.8% 17% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage47d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $53 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$57 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$60 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +111%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $192 −$111 -58%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 25 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.73 · official $5.73 (match) · 99 history records