Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x55f3…cada politics 114 markets active 19h ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28,206 (+6%) realized +$24,024 · open +$4,182
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate67%70W / 35L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$3,922per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$52,992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$358
7 days+$1,018
14 days+$1,018
30 days+$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$14,393
world 34% +$12,073
other 13% −$408
economics 4% +$591
sports 2% +$1,991
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +32.6% +20.0% 100% 75% +2.4%
≤30d 8 +4.4% -5.6% 75% 38% -6.7%
≤90d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 32% -1.9%
all 105 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 30% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 30% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 19% -12.8%
15% -25.3% 11% -21.2%
20% -32.6% 6% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$4,612) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$532 vs −$365 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$52,992
Realized+$24,024
Unrealized+$4,182
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses70 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)105 / 114
History coverage654d
Avg bet$3,922
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $26,237 $26,771 +$535 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $9,445 $12,045 +$2,599 (+28%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5,046 $5,108 +$61 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $2,838 $3,187 +$349 (+12%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $3,138 $3,168 +$30 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $802 $1,456 +$654 (+82%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $905 $910 +$5 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $238 $227 −$11 (-4%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $161 $121 −$39 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $6,576 +$358 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $631 +$413 +66%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $510 +$244 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$3 +12%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $5,300 −$322 -6%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $343 −$331 -96%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $3,766 +$190 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $1,741 +$34 +2%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $4,653 +$566 +12%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 11 $2,259 −$872 -39%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 05 $979 +$15 +2%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $1,014 −$1,005 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $33,387 +$4,987 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $4,000 +$240 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 05 $4,746 +$463 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 05 $7,019 −$163 -2%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Apr 04 $1,000 +$47 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 03 $2,793 −$85 -3%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 01 $2,770 +$17 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 31 $11,851 +$3,005 +25%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Mar 26 $902 +$278 +31%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $30,694 +$2,791 +9%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 19 $4,820 −$224 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Mar 18 $1,084 −$807 -74%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Mar 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Mar 18 $639 −$379 -59%
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municip Mar 16 $553 +$418 +76%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Mar 06 $240 +$4 +2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $13,175 +$17 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 02 $10,604 +$122 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 28 $3,506 +$23 +1%
ICE forced to unmask by February 28? Feb 28 $1,800 +$78 +4%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $17,820 +$555 +3%
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by Feb 28 $3,911 +$355 +9%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Feb 27 $321 −$8 -2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $6,880 −$24 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $3,004 −$8 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $21 −$16 -78%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $17,414 +$723 +4%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Feb 07 $11,549 −$1,107 -10%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Feb 05 $802 −$17 -2%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 05 $1,504 +$512 +34%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 04 $1,802 +$2,505 +139%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Feb 01 $3,995 +$303 +8%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $4,793 −$20 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 27 $9,081 +$432 +5%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Jan 27 $1,295 −$18 -1%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 27 $612 +$118 +19%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Jan 01 $2,550 +$231 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $102 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,076 18h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 94¢ $115 43h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 93¢ $357 43h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $475 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $158 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4,889 43h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5,050 43h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,000 43h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $967 43h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,009 44h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $957 44h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 95¢ $388 44h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $443 44h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,707 44h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $3,124 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,072 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $246 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $261 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $385 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $547 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,069 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $238 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $247 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $252 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $510 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $471 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 90¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52,992.22 · official $52,995.51 (match) · 1197 history records