Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55f3…b5c8 crypto 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$1,138 (-62%) realized −$1,134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%41W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$24
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,010
finance 10% −$103
other 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -16.1% -24.1% 36% 29% -24.4%
≤30d 50 -62.0% -65.7% 18% 16% -85.0%
≤90d 140 -34.9% -41.1% 29% 27% -66.2%
all 140 -34.9% -41.1% 29% 27% -66.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 27% -66.2%
10% -46.7% 26% -69.5%
15% -51.9% 24% -72.4%
20% -56.6% 21% -75.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses41 / 99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage64d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$38 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 29 $9 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 29 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23? May 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings? May 29 $80 −$80 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5? May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 402 history records