Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55eb…cf1d crypto 336 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (283 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,580 (+7%) realized +$4,580 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%187W / 357L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day283.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$754
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (283 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 285 -74.7% -77.1% 16% 11% -35.8%
≤30d 544 -41.2% -46.8% 34% 25% -19.6%
≤90d 544 -41.2% -46.8% 34% 25% -19.6%
all 544 -41.2% -46.8% 34% 25% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover283.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.8% 25% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -51.9% 15% -27.3%
15% -56.5% 10% -34.3%
20% -60.8% 6% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$46 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$938
Realized+$4,580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses187 / 357
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)544 / 336
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$193
Trades / day283.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 544 Trades
no open positions (271 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $74 −$79 -106%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$47 -272%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$74 -325%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $317 −$317 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$48 -118%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $70 −$75 -107%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$107 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$80 -101%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $118 −$118 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $86 −$82 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $42 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $42 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $42 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $37 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $38 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $28 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $26 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $18 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $37 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $14 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $15 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $45 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.10 · official $938.10 (match) · 3500 history records