Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55e7…4fb9 sports 1313 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,935 (+6%) realized +$2,933 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%673W / 636L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$635est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$248
7 days+$49
14 days+$203
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$1,266
other 6% −$249
weather 1% +$2
crypto 1% −$26
politics 0% +$27
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.8% -8.8% 48% 48% -5.5%
≤30d 138 -8.5% -17.2% 42% 42% -16.2%
≤90d 1309 -1.8% -11.2% 51% 46% -7.5%
all 1309 -1.8% -11.2% 51% 46% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 46% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 45% -16.4%
15% -27.4% 43% -24.4%
20% -34.6% 39% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$31 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$2,933
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses673 / 636
Est. fees paid−$635
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1309 / 1313
History coverage80d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Ayla Aksu 67¢ 68¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Under 47¢ 50¢ $35 $36 +$2 (+5%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 54¢ 55¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Taylah Preston 41¢ 40¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $26 +$27 +101%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $35 +$22 +62%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $21 +$25 +119%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $17 +$28 +165%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $28 +$58 +206%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $26 +$26 +97%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $52 +$19 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $31 −$31 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $18 +$34 +197%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $52 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 +$23 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 +$26 +97%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $31 +$34 +109%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 14 $26 −$26 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $26 +$22 +83%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $28 +$33 +119%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $31 −$31 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 13 $39 −$38 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $13 +$27 +206%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $39 +$40 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $17 +$14 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $39 +$43 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $21 +$23 +109%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $39 +$41 +105%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 10 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 09 $26 −$26 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $13 +$21 +158%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $26 $0 -2%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 08 $17 −$17 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $39 +$43 +109%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 07 $26 −$2 -9%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 160.5 Jun 06 $21 +$23 +109%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 41¢ $17 5m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 47¢ $35 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $26 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 67¢ $52 16h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $26 18h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 47¢ $31 24h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 48¢ $26 38h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 37¢ $17 42h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 45¢ $21 45h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 50¢ $26 46h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 34¢ $28 46h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 35¢ $17 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 47¢ $35 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $26 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 33¢ $18 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 40¢ $26 2d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 73¢ $52 2d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 82¢ $52 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 47¢ $21 2d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 61¢ $35 2d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 32¢ $28 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 45¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 45¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $26 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 39¢ $17 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 47¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $21 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 54¢ $26 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 60¢ $39 3d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 37¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.93 · official $130.93 (match) · 2878 history records