Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x55e4…b21f other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+9%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$20
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$2
finance 17% +$3
world 12% +$13
sports 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.6% +6.4% 71% 71% +5.9%
≤30d 8 +16.2% +5.1% 75% 62% +3.2%
≤90d 10 +7.0% -3.2% 70% 60% +0.7%
all 10 +7.0% -3.2% 70% 60% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 60% +0.7%
10% -12.5% 60% -9.0%
15% -20.9% 60% -17.8%
20% -28.7% 20% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage63d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$12 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 +$8 +114%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $44 +$3 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 27 $32 +$13 +40%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $25 −$13 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 22 history records