Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55dd…6f1f other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$4 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$9
crypto 43% +$18
sports 5% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-66.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -63.1% -66.6% 33% 33% -13.1%
≤30d 3 -63.1% -66.6% 33% 33% -13.1%
≤90d 3 -63.1% -66.6% 33% 33% -13.1%
all 3 -63.1% -66.6% 33% 33% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.6% 33% -13.1%
10% -69.8% 0% -21.4%
15% -72.7% 0% -29.0%
20% -75.4% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $163 +$18 +11%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $37 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $39 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $38 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $38 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $38 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $163 20h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.36 · official $186.36 (match) · 9 history records