Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55dd…9946 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$150 (-37%) realized −$153 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$98
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$84
crypto 18% −$65
sports 6% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-66.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -46.3% -51.5% 50% 0% -16.4%
≤30d 9 -63.3% -66.8% 22% 11% -54.7%
≤90d 9 -63.3% -66.8% 22% 11% -54.7%
all 9 -63.3% -66.8% 22% 11% -54.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.8% 11% -54.7%
10% -70.0% 11% -59.0%
15% -72.9% 0% -63.0%
20% -75.6% 0% -66.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$27 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage15d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $49 +$4 +7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 −$3 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $106 −$102 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $83 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $53 50m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $53 56m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $49 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $16 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $8 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $8 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $106 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $83 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.19 · official $54.19 (match) · 19 history records