Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55db…8db6 sports 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,257 (-9%) realized −$6,693 · open −$564
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%64W / 42L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$728per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$369est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$575
7 days+$575
14 days+$257
30 days−$3,165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$6,920
other 2% −$338
crypto 1% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +25.3% +13.3% 86% 71% +12.6%
≤30d 31 +0.2% -9.3% 58% 48% -21.1%
≤90d 32 -2.5% -11.8% 56% 47% -27.0%
all 106 +1.6% -8.1% 60% 48% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 48% -17.6%
10% -16.9% 32% -25.5%
15% -24.9% 24% -32.7%
20% -32.3% 17% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$858) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$399 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$6,693
Unrealized−$564
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses64 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$369
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage113d
Avg bet$728
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs Atrix Esports 24¢ 34¢ $206 $285 +$79 (+38%)
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner Atrix Esports 67¢ $643 $0 −$642 (-100%)
Valorant: la Masia vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In la Masia 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $237 +$167 +70%
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $53 $0 -0%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 24 $710 +$75 +11%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $133 +$39 +29%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li Jun 24 $454 +$233 +51%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $381 +$55 +14%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $380 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$13 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +157%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $318 −$314 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $128 −$126 -98%
ITF Troisdorf: Yannic Nittmann vs Sydney Zick May 27 $8 −$7 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $3 $0 +11%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $975 −$474 -49%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $158 −$158 -100%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Gro May 27 $378 −$374 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner May 27 $2,155 −$1,950 -90%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $169 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $358 −$320 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 26 $53 −$23 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 26 $105 +$198 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 26 $105 −$24 -23%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $7,748 −$2,845 -37%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,644 +$31 +2%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,301 +$682 +30%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,493 +$720 +29%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,634 +$384 +24%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $796 +$400 +50%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $681 +$116 +17%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $652 +$347 +53%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 26 $2,389 −$2,083 -87%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 24 $1,971 +$270 +14%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $1,279 +$224 +18%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $1,183 +$563 +48%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $735 +$449 +61%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $305 +$128 +42%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $559 +$327 +59%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $1,423 +$806 +57%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 24 $545 +$22 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $1,142 +$260 +23%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $1,762 −$24 -1%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Mar 24 $11,119 −$4,166 -38%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $790 +$125 +16%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $1,174 −$1,172 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $4,384 +$729 +17%
Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5 Mar 24 $879 +$411 +47%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 24 $1,932 −$418 -22%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-03-23? Mar 24 $1,949 −$338 -17%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $798 +$324 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 25¢ $5 3m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 24¢ $31 3m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 24¢ $174 3m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER SELL shimmer 80¢ $8 3m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 77¢ $8 4m
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 1 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $404 6m
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner SELL LYON 82¢ $32 8m
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner SELL LYON 82¢ $21 8m
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner BUY LYON 82¢ $53 15m
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY LYON 53¢ $5 25m
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY LYON 58¢ $232 25m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner SELL Atrix Esports 52¢ $15 30m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner SELL Atrix Esports 79¢ $149 32m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner SELL Atrix Esports 80¢ $79 32m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 73¢ $152 36m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 73¢ $41 36m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 73¢ $13 37m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 73¢ $13 38m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 79¢ $18 38m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 78¢ $8 40m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 78¢ $8 40m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 78¢ $8 40m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 76¢ $30 40m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 67¢ $51 41m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 67¢ $2 41m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 74¢ $29 41m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 74¢ $22 42m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 73¢ $29 42m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 69¢ $229 42m
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 2 Winner BUY Atrix Esports 63¢ $126 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.41 · official $170.51 · 724 history records