Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55da…74ef sports 361 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%156W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$56
14 days−$124
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$41
weather 25% −$211
other 22% +$148
crypto 3% −$6
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -10.4% -19.0% 46% 46% -12.8%
≤30d 154 -8.4% -17.2% 48% 48% -9.2%
≤90d 349 -11.4% -19.8% 45% 44% -11.3%
all 349 -11.4% -19.8% 45% 44% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 44% -11.3%
10% -27.5% 42% -19.8%
15% -34.5% 40% -27.6%
20% -40.9% 32% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses156 / 193
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions12
Markets (closed)349 / 361
History coverage68d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 38¢ 36¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$16 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$22 +48%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -91%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$16 +79%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +303%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$22 +212%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$20 +95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$28 +91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$19 -94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$8 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 +$19 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$13 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +47%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$11 +56%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $31 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 23¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 10h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 34h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $31 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $31 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.87 · official $121.87 (match) · 853 history records