Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55d8…4e6b other 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 411d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$76 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate27%43W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$7
other 28% −$3
politics 19% +$1
culture 6% −$5
world 4% −$18
crypto 2% +$18
tech 1% +$15
weather 1% −$79
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 50% -8.0%
≤30d 10 +18.7% +7.4% 70% 40% -1.0%
≤90d 46 +3.6% -6.3% 50% 11% -8.6%
all 158 -1.6% -10.9% 27% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 8% -10.0%
10% -19.5% 6% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 4% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

411d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses43 / 115
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)158 / 164
History coverage411d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $9 −$3 (-27%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $83 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $24 +$4 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 27 $29 +$16 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $14 +$8 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $17 +$11 +67%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $141 −$2 -1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 02 $82 +$1 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $8 $0 -1%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $83 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 25 $7 $0 +3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $190 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Apr 21 $4 $0 +3%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $95 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $95 $0 -0%
Big Game: National Anthem O/U 119.5 seconds Apr 10 $54 −$3 -6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +71%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $95 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 02 $95 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $95 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $95 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $284 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $95 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $189 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $95 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $93 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $92 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 17 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 17 $102 −$12 -12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 16 $146 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $101 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes $1 10m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 47m
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes $0 49m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 29h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 29h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $28 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $27 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $24 13d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 17d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $6 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $9 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 26d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $8 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $32 28d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.55 · official $110.55 (match) · 710 history records