Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
55 0x55d6…d3dd sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31 (-18%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$34
other 35% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +69.5% +53.3% 33% 33% +54.7%
≤30d 3 +69.5% +53.3% 33% 33% +54.7%
≤90d 3 +69.5% +53.3% 33% 33% +54.7%
all 12 +2.6% -7.2% 42% 42% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 42% -14.8%
10% -16.1% 42% -22.9%
15% -24.2% 42% -30.4%
20% -31.6% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage114d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 +$21 +408%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 11 $10 +$14 +138%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Mar 10 $12 +$11 +92%
Will Fulham FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $50 +$19 +39%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.92 · official $4.92 (match) · 22 history records