Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55d6…1f24 crypto 1387 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$452 (+7%) realized +$453 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%685W / 697L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$49
14 days+$156
30 days+$513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$517
crypto 30% −$70
other 1% −$5
weather 1% −$19
world 1% −$8
finance 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 +10.1% -0.4% 52% 52% -6.7%
≤30d 866 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 49% -0.1%
≤90d 1382 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 46% -4.0%
all 1382 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 46% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 46% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 44% -13.2%
15% -28.1% 39% -21.5%
20% -35.1% 35% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$453
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses685 / 697
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1382 / 1387
History coverage46d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Under 52¢ 51¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 54¢ 54¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 60¢ 60¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 427 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $24 −$4 -17%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $32 +$14 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $28 +$22 +80%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $29 +$25 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $21 +$15 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $21 +$15 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $29 +$25 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $29 +$25 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $27 −$27 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $29 −$28 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $32 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $29 +$23 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $29 +$24 +83%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $34 +$25 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $34 −$33 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $16 6m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $24 6m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $20 39m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 82¢ $46 39m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 60¢ $23 46m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $30 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 95¢ $50 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $27 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $29 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $24 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.82 · official $92.82 (match) · 3020 history records