Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x55d6…bbae sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$237 (-18%) realized −$231 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$865
other 20% −$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +66.3% +50.5% 67% 67% +40.3%
≤30d 3 +66.3% +50.5% 67% 67% +40.3%
≤90d 3 +66.3% +50.5% 67% 67% +40.3%
all 3 +66.3% +50.5% 67% 67% +40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.5% 67% +40.3%
10% +36.1% 67% +26.9%
15% +22.9% 67% +14.6%
20% +10.9% 67% +3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$436 vs −$259 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.36 per $1 lost it wins $3.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage4d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 51¢ 50¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 30 $659 +$413 +63%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 30 $194 +$458 +236%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $264 −$259 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 51¢ $203 10m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 87¢ $1,072 22m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $608 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 17¢ $41 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 36¢ $153 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $264 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.12 · official $201.96 · 8 history records