Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55cd…5ccc crypto 609 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$368 (-4%) realized −$361 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%238W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$15
14 days+$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$149
world 13% −$19
sports 12% −$21
other 9% −$57
politics 2% −$64
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% −$8
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +112.3% +92.1% 56% 56% +18.3%
≤30d 13 +51.2% +36.8% 38% 38% -10.6%
≤90d 391 -50.2% -55.0% 24% 17% -30.6%
all 597 -13.3% -21.5% 40% 32% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 32% -12.9%
10% -29.0% 25% -21.2%
15% -35.9% 20% -28.9%
20% -42.2% 16% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$361
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses238 / 359
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)597 / 609
History coverage152d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? No 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will DR Congo concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 0¢ 20¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +227%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will a player representing Mexico be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 12 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$7 -72%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -45%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 21 $18 −$5 -26%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 14 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 14 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025 Apr 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Trump say "China" during Monday news conference? Apr 07 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 07 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump post "Spain" on Truth Social this week? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 0m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $17 4m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group S BUY No 27¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY No 19¢ $5 1h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will a player representing Mexico be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will a player representing Mexico be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 5d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY No 49¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.76 · official $150.10 · 1759 history records