Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x55cc…8c91
other · 52 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$211 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$164 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$432
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 30
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions16
Markets (closed)36 / 52
History coverage24d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 16 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$25
14 days−$158
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $112 $109 −$3 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $91 $93 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-21%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 75¢ 82¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 74¢ 77¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 69¢ 67¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic 80¢ 63¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 36¢ 82¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+127%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -76%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch Jun 13 $15 −$9 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $25 −$3 -11%
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $25 −$3 -12%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 05 $60 −$4 -7%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 05 $10 −$1 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $30 −$4 -15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$8 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $203 −$66 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $40 −$13 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $137 −$11 -8%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $291 −$40 -14%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 +$79 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$15 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 28 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 25 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 25 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 25 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 42% +$41
other 35% −$122
politics 13% −$11
crypto 6% −$83
world 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 24¢ $1 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch SELL Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch BUY Yes 89¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch SELL No 11¢ $1 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch SELL Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch BUY Yes 89¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -27.5% -34.4% 9% 0% -30.9%
≤30d 36 -18.7% -26.4% 17% 11% -21.5%
≤90d 36 -18.7% -26.4% 17% 11% -21.5%
all 36 -18.7% -26.4% 17% 11% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.4% 11% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 8% -29.0%
15% -39.9% 8% -35.9%
20% -45.8% 8% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.95 · official $431.95 (match) · 645 history records