Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:56:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55cb…275a other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$333 (+4%) realized +$364 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 74L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1,519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$828
sports 12% +$213
crypto 6% −$309
world 3% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -24.0% -31.3% 12% 12% +1.4%
≤30d 84 -24.0% -31.3% 12% 12% +1.4%
≤90d 84 -24.0% -31.3% 12% 12% +1.4%
all 84 -24.0% -31.3% 12% 12% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.3% 12% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 12% -8.3%
15% -43.9% 11% -17.1%
20% -49.4% 11% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$490 vs −$57 · ×8.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,519
Realized+$364
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 74
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 101
History coverage6d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1,400 $1,394 −$6 (-0%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $150 $125 −$25 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $263 −$257 -98%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $0 $0 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $664 +$1,825 +275%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 −$85 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $231 −$225 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $184 −$180 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $246 −$239 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $40 −$39 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$97 +189%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $51 +$149 +291%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $26 +$331 +1290%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $97 +$563 +578%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026 Jun 17 $51 +$403 +785%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 −$55 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 44m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 46m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 3¢ $103 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 4h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $102 5h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 5¢ $10 5h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Ira BUY 2¢ $10 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 BUY 1¢ $5 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 BUY 1¢ $3 5h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,437 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 20h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,519.38 · official $1,519.38 (match) · 257 history records