trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +92.4% | +74.0% | 100% | 50% | +70.5% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +92.4% | +74.0% | 100% | 50% | +70.5% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +58.6% | +43.5% | 67% | 33% | +57.7% |
| all | 16 | -8.8% | -17.5% | 38% | 25% | -7.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.5% | 25% | -7.5% |
| 10% | -25.4% | 19% | -16.3% |
| 15% | -32.6% | 12% | -24.4% |
| 20% | -39.2% | 6% | -31.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 12¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-87%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 15 | $6 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 15 | $6 | +$10 | +175% |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? | Apr 10 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31? | Jan 13 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | Jan 13 | $1 | $0 | +23% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Dec 27 | $1 | $0 | +43% |
| Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? | Dec 27 | $1 | −$1 | -87% |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | Dec 06 | $3 | +$1 | +20% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Dec 06 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Dec 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e | Nov 19 | $4 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? | Nov 07 | $2 | −$1 | -58% |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Nov 07 | $5 | −$3 | -55% |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Nov 03 | $3 | −$1 | -31% |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Oct 25 | $6 | −$3 | -57% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele | Oct 18 | $3 | $0 | -2% |