Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55c7…96c3 weather 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate51%81W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$4
weather 22% $0
tech 12% +$1
crypto 12% −$2
politics 12% −$4
culture 6% $0
sports 4% −$14
world 3% −$4
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.0% -9.5% 53% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 39 +0.0% -9.5% 59% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 109 -1.8% -11.2% 42% 0% -9.9%
all 158 -4.9% -14.0% 51% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 1% -10.4%
10% -22.2% 0% -19.0%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses81 / 77
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage543d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? Jun 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary Jun 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 19? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 4? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Joshua Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 0.7% and 1.0%? May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on May 28? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 27? May 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 27? May 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on May May 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on May 27? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $4 21m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $22 13h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 16h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $14 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 24h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 24h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 25h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 39h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $6 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $6 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $5 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 46h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 2 SELL No 100¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.79 · official $32.79 (match) · 348 history records