Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
55 0x55c6…0d49 sports 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR84%break-even
Win rate84%122W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days+$13
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +84%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +4.1% -5.9% 85% 85% -9.1%
≤30d 145 +2.5% -7.2% 84% 84% -9.6%
≤90d 145 +2.5% -7.2% 84% 84% -9.6%
all 145 +2.5% -7.2% 84% 84% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 84% -9.6%
10% -16.1% 26% -18.3%
15% -24.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -31.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$24 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses122 / 23
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage9d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 83¢ 100¢ $33 $40 +$7 (+20%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 83¢ 82¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $29 +$7 +23%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $30 +$7 +24%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $29 +$6 +21%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $28 +$6 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $28 +$6 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $28 +$6 +21%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $29 +$6 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $29 +$6 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $29 +$6 +21%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $28 +$6 +23%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $31 +$7 +24%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $28 +$6 +20%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $12 +$2 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $32 +$7 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $31 +$7 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $32 +$8 +24%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $18 +$4 +20%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $32 +$6 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $37 +$8 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $37 +$8 +21%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $37 +$8 +21%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $37 +$8 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $37 +$8 +21%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $36 +$7 +20%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $35 +$8 +22%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $34 +$7 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $33 +$7 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $34 +$7 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $30 +$7 +23%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $32 +$7 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $31 +$7 +24%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $33 +$9 +26%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $33 +$6 +20%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $31 +$7 +23%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $30 +$7 +23%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $31 +$7 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 83¢ $29 4m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 81¢ $29 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 82¢ $30 15h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 83¢ $30 15h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 82¢ $29 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Martyna Kubka 80¢ $30 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 82¢ $28 18h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Fiona Ferro 83¢ $28 18h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 82¢ $28 18h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 82¢ $29 19h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk BUY Darja Vidmanova 82¢ $29 19h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Caty McNally 82¢ $29 19h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 83¢ $30 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 80¢ $30 20h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Elena Ruxandra Bertea 83¢ $26 20h
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru BUY Miriam Bulgaru 83¢ $30 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 82¢ $4 20h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 81¢ $28 21h
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 83¢ $28 21h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 82¢ $12 22h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 80¢ $31 22h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 79¢ $31 23h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 83¢ $31 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 82¢ $31 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 82¢ $32 23h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 80¢ $32 23h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 83¢ $32 24h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 83¢ $18 24h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 83¢ $32 25h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Vera Zvonareva 82¢ $38 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.03 · official $69.03 (match) · 299 history records