Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
55 0x55c6…da59 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 116L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$12
politics 31% −$9
sports 12% +$45
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 129 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 6% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 5% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 4% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×11.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 116
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)129 / 132
History coverage136d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $187 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 06 $158 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $158 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $157 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $352 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $381 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $343 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $436 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $420 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $164 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $148 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $175 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $456 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $352 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $295 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $202 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $144 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $155 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $186 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $142 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $370 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $150 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 20 $148 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $325 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $383 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $348 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $193 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 22d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $187 28d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 30d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 34d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $139 38d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $139 39d
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election SELL No 100¢ $158 48d
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election BUY No 100¢ $158 48d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $144 48d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $144 49d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $183 49d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $183 49d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $158 49d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $158 50d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $157 50d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $157 50d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $146 50d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $146 50d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $166 50d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $166 50d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $159 51d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $159 51d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $141 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.97 · official $72.97 (match) · 374 history records