Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
55 0x55c3…6732 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,709 (+12%) realized +$1,709 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate74%31W / 11L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,774
7 days+$2,187
14 days+$2,176
30 days+$2,178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$783
sports 22% +$1,334
world 2% −$34
finance 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +48.3% +34.2% 81% 57% +6.4%
≤30d 31 +29.5% +17.2% 77% 52% +5.0%
≤90d 41 +19.8% +8.4% 73% 51% +3.9%
all 42 +20.2% +8.8% 74% 52% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 52% +4.0%
10% -1.6% 24% -6.0%
15% -11.1% 14% -15.1%
20% -19.9% 10% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$615) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$130 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,709
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses31 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage102d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1,181 +$341 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $652 +$78 +12%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,057 +$125 +12%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $474 +$1,181 +249%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $615 −$139 -23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $791 +$124 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $739 +$53 +7%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $86 +$112 +129%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $898 +$83 +9%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $893 +$42 +5%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $114 +$742 +649%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,290 −$870 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $788 +$94 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $658 +$130 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $413 +$126 +30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $361 +$52 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $431 −$71 -16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $421 +$40 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $263 +$19 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $237 +$26 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $229 +$8 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $216 +$13 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $190 +$26 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $93 +$5 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $93 −$8 -9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $83 +$19 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $90 −$5 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $63 +$27 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 08 $25 +$3 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 23 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 23 $15 +$2 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $25 +$3 +12%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $99 −$60 -60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 29 $57 −$10 -18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 29 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 29 $15 +$4 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 29 $50 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $85 +$17 +20%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $42 +$15 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,522 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1,181 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $1,182 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $1,057 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,655 7h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $474 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $476 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $615 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $915 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $791 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $784 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $739 27h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 32¢ $98 28h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 29h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $102 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $652 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $982 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $898 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $923 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $856 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $856 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $114 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records