trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +5.0% | -5.0% | 50% | 25% | -11.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -47.2% | -52.2% | 27% | 9% | -83.1% |
| all | 11 | -47.2% | -52.2% | 27% | 9% | -83.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -52.2% | 9% | -83.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -56.8% | 9% | -84.7% |
| 15% | -61.0% | 9% | -86.2% |
| 20% | -64.8% | 9% | -87.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 88¢ | 91¢ | $893 | $924 | +$30 (+3%) |
| o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 55¢ | 54¢ | $95 | $93 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch | Jun 05 | $923 | +$45 | +5% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? | May 25 | $499 | −$9 | -2% |
| Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch? | May 21 | $21 | +$25 | +117% |
| MegaETH FDV above $800M one day after launch? | May 01 | $1,184 | −$1,179 | -100% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | Apr 30 | $8,837 | −$8,783 | -99% |
| MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Apr 30 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | Apr 30 | $3,793 | −$1,680 | -44% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Apr 30 | $9,160 | −$9,135 | -100% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? | Apr 30 | $1,434 | −$1,416 | -99% |
| USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Apr 20 | $1,348 | +$34 | +2% |