Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x55c0…c9a0 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$163 (-11%) realized −$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$195
world 16% +$26
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +128.6% +106.9% 100% 100% +106.9%
≤90d 6 +20.4% +8.9% 67% 67% -21.0%
all 6 +20.4% +8.9% 67% 67% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 67% -21.0%
10% -1.5% 50% -28.5%
15% -11.0% 33% -35.4%
20% -19.8% 33% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$305 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage68d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $87 +$113 +129%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $147 +$223 +152%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 09 $339 −$333 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 08 $260 +$80 +31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $234 +$26 +11%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Apr 15 $277 −$277 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $41 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 7d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 43¢ $87 19d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $147 38d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 37¢ $339 44d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 76¢ $260 47d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 90¢ $234 55d
Red Wings vs. Panthers BUY Red Wings 58¢ $277 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.85 · official $87.85 (match) · 12 history records