Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55bd…ac90 crypto 8 markets active 7d ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-31%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -43.2% -48.6% 50% 12% -40.1%
all 8 -43.2% -48.6% 50% 12% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.6% 12% -40.1%
10% -53.5% 12% -45.9%
15% -58.0% 0% -51.1%
20% -62.1% 0% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage38d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 03 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 03 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 03 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 03 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $7 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records