Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55bc…52d8 crypto 875 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$365 (-7%) realized −$365 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate88%770W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$307
14 days−$286
30 days−$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$429
other 16% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -15.5% -23.5% 43% 31% -30.5%
≤30d 191 -8.1% -16.8% 66% 25% -20.8%
≤90d 873 -3.8% -13.0% 88% 7% -18.1%
all 873 -3.8% -13.0% 88% 7% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 7% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 4% -25.9%
15% -28.9% 2% -33.1%
20% -35.9% 1% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$365
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses770 / 103
Open positions2
Markets (closed)873 / 875
History coverage47d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 873 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 71¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 63¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$12 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$5 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $96 −$27 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$11 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$7 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.20 · official $2.00 (match) · 2120 history records