Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55bc…9ef4 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-11%) realized −$87 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day153.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -25.0% -32.2% 42% 36% -20.6%
≤30d 77 -25.0% -32.2% 42% 36% -20.6%
≤90d 77 -25.0% -32.2% 42% 36% -20.6%
all 77 -25.0% -32.2% 42% 36% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.2% 36% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -38.7% 25% -28.2%
15% -44.6% 19% -35.2%
20% -50.0% 10% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day153.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$27 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $1.39 · 175 history records