trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +44.4% | +30.7% | 100% | 100% | +30.7% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +44.4% | +30.7% | 100% | 100% | +30.7% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +44.4% | +30.7% | 100% | 100% | +30.7% |
| all | 22 | +14.3% | +3.4% | 59% | 45% | +29.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.4% | 45% | +29.0% |
| 10% | -6.5% | 32% | +16.7% |
| 15% | -15.5% | 32% | +5.4% |
| 20% | -23.8% | 18% | -4.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $238 | $185 | −$53 (-22%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $121 | $125 | +$3 (+3%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $141 | $98 | −$43 (-31%) |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $50 | $33 | −$17 (-35%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | Jun 11 | $2,009 | +$893 | +44% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-12-07? | Nov 29 | $63 | −$3 | -5% |
| Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Nov 29 | $104 | −$44 | -42% |
| Will Bayern München win on 2025-12-06? | Nov 29 | $44 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 29 | $157 | +$17 | +11% |
| Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? | Nov 29 | $138 | +$393 | +285% |
| Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? | Nov 01 | $10 | +$2 | +20% |
| Pepe ETF in 2025? | Oct 29 | $100 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? | Oct 28 | $199 | +$33 | +17% |
| Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31? | Oct 27 | $374 | +$261 | +70% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25? | Oct 27 | $70 | +$30 | +43% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Oct 20 | $100 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-05? | Oct 11 | $690 | +$310 | +45% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? | Oct 01 | $544 | −$544 | -100% |
| Jumper airdrop in Q2 2025? | Jun 10 | $65 | −$65 | -100% |
| Bybit insolvent before April? | May 07 | $63 | +$3 | +4% |
| Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 22 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 22 | $110 | −$110 | -100% |
| Biden drops out of presidential race? | Jun 28 | $1,539 | +$1,785 | +116% |
| Scroll airdrop by June 30? | May 16 | $344 | −$269 | -78% |
| Taiko airdrop by June 30? | May 14 | $317 | +$591 | +186% |
| Argent airdrop by June 30? | May 13 | $509 | −$21 | -4% |