Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
55 0x55ba…16d1 other 26 markets active 5d ago coverage 838d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,138 (+39%) realized +$3,248 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$893
14 days+$893
30 days+$893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$1,610
politics 23% +$1,678
world 8% −$517
sports 3% +$349
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +44.4% +30.7% 100% 100% +30.7%
≤30d 1 +44.4% +30.7% 100% 100% +30.7%
≤90d 1 +44.4% +30.7% 100% 100% +30.7%
all 22 +14.3% +3.4% 59% 45% +29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 45% +29.0%
10% -6.5% 32% +16.7%
15% -15.5% 32% +5.4%
20% -23.8% 18% -4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$332 vs −$121 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.97 per $1 lost it wins $3.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

838d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized+$3,248
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage838d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $238 $185 −$53 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $121 $125 +$3 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $141 $98 −$43 (-31%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $33 −$17 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Jun 11 $2,009 +$893 +44%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-12-07? Nov 29 $63 −$3 -5%
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? Nov 29 $104 −$44 -42%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-12-06? Nov 29 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $157 +$17 +11%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Nov 29 $138 +$393 +285%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Nov 01 $10 +$2 +20%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Oct 29 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Oct 28 $199 +$33 +17%
Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31? Oct 27 $374 +$261 +70%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25? Oct 27 $70 +$30 +43%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 20 $100 −$2 -2%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-05? Oct 11 $690 +$310 +45%
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? Oct 01 $544 −$544 -100%
Jumper airdrop in Q2 2025? Jun 10 $65 −$65 -100%
Bybit insolvent before April? May 07 $63 +$3 +4%
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jun 28 $1,539 +$1,785 +116%
Scroll airdrop by June 30? May 16 $344 −$269 -78%
Taiko airdrop by June 30? May 14 $317 +$591 +186%
Argent airdrop by June 30? May 13 $509 −$21 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $145 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $125 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $473 4d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,811 7d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL Yes 23¢ $617 7d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 38d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 51d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 52d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 53d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 53d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $700 53d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $238 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $152 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $170 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $76 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $178 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $183 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $90 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $33 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 54d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 54d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $60 54d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 179d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $117 179d
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-12-07? SELL Yes 60¢ $60 198d
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $60 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $440.61 · official $440.61 (match) · 314 history records