Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55b7…40ee crypto 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$461 (-3%) realized −$461 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate68%65W / 30L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$370
world 12% −$2
politics 9% +$52
other 4% +$7
sports 1% −$88
weather 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +12.7% +2.0% 32% 29% -20.0%
≤30d 34 +12.7% +2.0% 32% 29% -20.0%
≤90d 34 +12.7% +2.0% 32% 29% -20.0%
all 95 +2.9% -6.9% 68% 16% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 16% -12.0%
10% -15.8% 9% -20.4%
15% -24.0% 8% -28.1%
20% -31.4% 6% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$30 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$461
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses65 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage108d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$16 +21%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$10 +202%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $3 +$13 +420%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$66 +259%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 +$30 +982%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -46%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$32 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$9 +448%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$8 +15%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$28 -90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 +$26 +47%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -58%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -81%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 11 $45 +$9 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 10? Mar 10 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 10 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 10 $550 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 10 $133 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 10 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 09 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 09 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 9? Mar 09 $75 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 9? Mar 09 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 09 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 09 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 09 $277 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 09 $156 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 09 $300 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $38 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $76 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $92 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $70 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 29h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $26 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 222 history records