Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
55 0x55b7…3775 world 151 markets active 1d ago coverage 958d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,724 (+1%) realized +$4,461 · open +$263
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%123W / 12L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,354per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$21,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$61
14 days+$251
30 days+$639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$664
politics 27% +$489
economics 21% +$805
other 14% +$237
crypto 4% +$153
tech 1% +$129
finance 1% +$53
sports 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 33 +0.9% -8.7% 94% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 80 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 0% -8.9%
all 135 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 2% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$3,608) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$469 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

958d coverage
Net worth$21,761
Realized+$4,461
Unrealized+$263
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses123 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)135 / 151
History coverage958d
Avg bet$3,354
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,985 $2,992 +$8 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $2,331 $2,357 +$26 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,987 $1,997 +$10 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,987 $1,997 +$10 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,990 $1,995 +$5 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $1,810 $1,897 +$87 (+5%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,726 $1,793 +$67 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,544 $1,546 +$2 (+0%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,484 $1,498 +$14 (+1%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $994 $998 +$4 (+0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $987 $994 +$6 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $787 $799 +$12 (+1%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $492 $499 +$7 (+1%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $221 $223 +$2 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $133 $133 +$1 (+0%)
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 25 $227 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 24 $3,954 +$18 +0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $1,986 +$14 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $4,478 +$21 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $995 +$5 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $13,000 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $3,972 +$28 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 18 $2,478 +$2 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $498 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $999 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $494 +$6 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $5,884 +$116 +2%
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? Jun 16 $146 +$1 +1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $40,500 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2,965 +$34 +1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 10 $915 +$32 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $15,371 +$129 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $492 +$8 +2%
SAVE Act becomes law by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,565 +$8 +0%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $1,173 +$3 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $491 +$9 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,373 +$27 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $397 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,991 +$9 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $3,565 +$17 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,985 +$15 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $494 +$6 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $4,039 +$47 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $2,773 +$27 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $1,464 +$14 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $1,189 +$11 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $1,439 +$20 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $35,326 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,766 +$34 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,768 +$32 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $2,152 +$48 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $360 +$30 +8%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 16 $1,500 +$6 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $1,775 +$25 +1%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,315 +$5 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,796 +$4 +0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $1,786 +$14 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $3,339 +$43 +1%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $4,927 −$170 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 12 $450 +$5 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $993 +$7 +1%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? May 07 $783 +$4 +0%
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31? May 05 $455 +$11 +2%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $8,371 +$29 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3,972 27h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $496 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,257 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $996 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $498 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,990 6d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $859 6d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 6d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $124 6d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 6d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $48 6d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 6d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $61 6d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 7d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $0 7d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $91 7d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,760.90 · official $21,760.90 (match) · 1224 history records