Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55b6…6e02 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$34
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$9
crypto 8% −$2
sports 7% −$10
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 67% 62% -3.5%
≤30d 31 -12.1% -20.5% 55% 48% -13.0%
≤90d 31 -12.1% -20.5% 55% 48% -13.0%
all 31 -12.1% -20.5% 55% 48% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 48% -13.0%
10% -28.1% 42% -21.3%
15% -35.1% 39% -28.9%
20% -41.4% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage10d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $37 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $49 +$26 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $34 +$15 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $29 +$5 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $84 +$39 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $57 +$26 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$23 +69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +75%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 +$4 +54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$2 +28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$3 -39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$4 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +43%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$6 +49%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$2 -20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -56%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$7 -62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$17 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$3 -24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $37 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $38 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $29 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $93 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $84 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $57 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $11 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.66 · official $72.66 (match) · 64 history records