Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55b6…09e2 sports 422 markets active 10h ago coverage 46d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19,156 (-1%) realized −$19,156 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%398W / 24L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,178per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Fees−$942est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$836
7 days−$47,820
14 days−$43,790
30 days−$33,816
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$32,233
other 17% +$19,141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -13.7% -21.9% 83% 1% -18.8%
≤30d 326 -2.7% -12.0% 94% 2% -12.8%
≤90d 422 -1.0% -10.4% 94% 3% -10.4%
all 422 -1.0% -10.4% 94% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 3% -10.4%
10% -19.0% 1% -19.0%
15% ← realistic here -26.8% 1% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$3,213) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$2,370 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19,156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses398 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$942
Open positions0
Markets (closed)422 / 422
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$3,178
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 422 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23,079 +$56 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,862 +$136 +7%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24,438 +$53 +0%
Spread: Iraq (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,362 +$11 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25,321 +$251 +1%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $279 +$21 +8%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,434 +$26 +2%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,579 +$39 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17,212 +$228 +1%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) Jun 15 $7,927 +$13 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17,459 +$476 +3%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,526 +$22 +2%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 15 $5,772 +$6 +0%
Spread: Golden Knights (-3.5) Jun 15 $134 $0 +0%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 15 $486 +$14 +3%
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) Jun 15 $334 +$2 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $4,905 +$95 +2%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $19,879 +$733 +4%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,035 +$10 +1%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $15,000 −$15,000 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,934 +$8 +0%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 14 $6,431 −$3,353 -52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $589 +$8 +1%
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Jun 14 $3,992 +$8 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35,527 +$604 +2%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $5,785 +$151 +3%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $119 +$2 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $27,102 +$750 +3%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 14 $237 +$2 +1%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 14 $192 −$192 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 14 $728 −$728 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5,025 −$2,843 -57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $7,868 −$6,710 -85%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 14 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $4,187 −$4,187 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $373 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $72 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $72 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $145 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,767 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,366 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,981 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,990 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $731 10h
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $999 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,862 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records