Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

55 0x55b4…29f9 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$230 (+18%) realized +$291 · open −$61

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%10W / 6L

Drawdown39%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day16.9pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-1.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+9.3%	-1.1%	62%	62%	+12.4%
≤30d	16	+9.3%	-1.1%	62%	62%	+12.4%
≤90d	16	+9.3%	-1.1%	62%	62%	+12.4%
all	16	+9.3%	-1.1%	62%	62%	+12.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.1%	62%	+12.4%
10%	-10.6%	62%	+1.6%
15%	-19.2%	56%	-8.2%
20%	-27.1%	44%	-17.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 32% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late +32% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$62 vs −$58 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized+$291

Unrealized−$61

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses10 / 6

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day16.9

Drawdown39%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Yes	52¢	20¢	$100	$39	−$61 (-61%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 19	$103	+$82	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 19	$105	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 19	$27	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 18	$104	+$98	+95%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$61	+$61	+101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 18	$103	+$69	+68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 18	$103	+$89	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 18	$25	+$8	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	−$100	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$10	+38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$91	+$36	+40%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$71	+$104	+145%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$100	+$68	+67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$96	−$95	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$104	2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$122	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$103	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$33	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$25	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$20	7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$61	9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$26	21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$127	22h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$175	25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$91	27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$71	27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$168	28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$100	30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$96	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.42 · official $39.42 (match) · 27 history records