Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x55ab…4f88 sports 371 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (193 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$21,304 (+26%) realized +$21,427 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%235W / 471L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day192.5pace
Fees−$508est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$5,938
sports 48% +$176
economics 1% −$86
world 0% +$119
culture 0% −$298
crypto 0% +$31
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (193 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 555 +53.9% +39.2% 26% 22% -35.6%
≤30d 706 +45.3% +31.4% 33% 26% -15.0%
≤90d 706 +45.3% +31.4% 33% 26% -15.0%
all 706 +45.3% +31.4% 33% 26% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover192.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.4% 26% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here +18.9% 22% -23.2%
15% +7.4% 19% -30.6%
20% -3.2% 15% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$53 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$3,858
Realized+$21,427
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses235 / 471
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$508
Open positions75
Markets (closed)706 / 371
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$221
Trades / day192.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 706 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 86¢ 84¢ $419 $409 −$10 (-2%)
Will T1 win MSI 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $289 $283 −$6 (-2%)
Will Bangladesh win? No 63¢ 94¢ $183 $275 +$92 (+50%)
Will England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 86¢ 90¢ $171 $179 +$8 (+5%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 81¢ 88¢ $152 $166 +$14 (+9%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 77¢ 91¢ $131 $156 +$25 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 94¢ $138 $150 +$12 (+9%)
Will Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? No 79¢ 94¢ $115 $136 +$21 (+19%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? No 94¢ 96¢ $105 $108 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 59¢ 92¢ $63 $99 +$36 (+57%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 63¢ 62¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? No 91¢ 96¢ $91 $96 +$5 (+6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? No 92¢ 97¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+5%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $79 $87 +$8 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 99¢ $77 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $64 $72 +$7 (+12%)
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 71¢ 77¢ $57 $62 +$5 (+8%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $73 $60 −$12 (-17%)
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $154 $53 −$101 (-66%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Hanwha Eagles 9¢ 52¢ $9 $53 +$44 (+481%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $50 $53 +$2 (+5%)
Will "The Polygamist: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 84¢ 98¢ $44 $52 +$8 (+18%)
Will Colombia be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 84¢ 88¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 425 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-27? Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 29 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-05-15? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Asylzhan Arystanbekova vs Deniz Dilek Jun 29 $0 +$2 +1524%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Singapore vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FBC Melgar win on 2026-05-22? Jun 29 $54 −$53 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 29 $894 +$200 +22%
Will St Mirren FC vs. Dundee United FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-06? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-05-16? Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 29 $5 +$227 +4755%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Alexis Tipton as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Be Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -80%
Will CDPJuniorFC vs. Atlético Nacional end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this w Jun 29 $666 −$682 -102%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? Jun 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. US Avellino 1912 end in a draw? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-06? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Angel City FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? Jun 29 $19 −$15 -79%
Will Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-05-02? Jun 29 $10 −$9 -96%
Will Orgryte IS win on 2026-05-18? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Jun 29 $4 +$35 +899%
Will SC Preußen Münster vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-05-23? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. AZ end in a draw? Jun 29 $16 −$33 -201%
Will North Macedonia vs. Azerbaijan end in a draw? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? Jun 29 $0 +$48 +14265%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 29 $4 +$16 +361%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 29 $81 +$459 +568%
Will Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC end in a draw? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-02? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-05-16? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brøndby IF vs. FC Nordsjælland end in a draw? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FBC Melgar win on 2026-05-03? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ADC Juan Pablo II College vs. Club Alianza Atlético end in a draw Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? Jun 29 $24 −$10 -43%
Will Cruz Azul win Liga MX? Jun 29 $181 −$174 -96%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? Jun 29 $51 +$25 +49%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-05-17? Jun 29 $18 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Mickael Kaouk 57¢ $16 8m
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 55¢ $84 1h
ITF Amstelveen: Merel Hoedt vs Dune Vaissaud BUY Dune Vaissaud 73¢ $104 1h
Set 2 Winner: Shapovalov vs Busta BUY Busta 34¢ $9 1h
Set 2 Winner: Shapovalov vs Busta BUY Shapovalov 52¢ $13 1h
Set 2 Winner: Shapovalov vs Busta BUY Shapovalov 34¢ $14 1h
Set 2 Winner: Shapovalov vs Busta BUY Shapovalov 32¢ $8 1h
Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs Safiullin BUY Rublev 87¢ $22 1h
Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs Safiullin BUY Rublev 61¢ $15 1h
Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs Safiullin BUY Safiullin 31¢ $10 1h
Set 2 Winner: Shapovalov vs Busta BUY Shapovalov 37¢ $19 1h
Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs Safiullin BUY Safiullin 63¢ $8 1h
Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs Safiullin BUY Safiullin 69¢ $33 1h
Set 2 Winner: Mochizuki vs Basing BUY Mochizuki 93¢ $45 2h
Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3h
Will England be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $8 6h
Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 6h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Will England be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 13h
Will England be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 13h
Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 14h
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World BUY Yes 64¢ $1 14h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY PortlandFire 7¢ $20 14h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY PortlandFire 25¢ $0 14h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 72¢ $60 14h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY PortlandFire 13¢ $2 14h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 79¢ $65 14h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY PortlandFire 24¢ $4 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,858.10 · official $3,853.36 (match) · 3500 history records