Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x55a3…8cc2
sports · 16 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$3,355 -28%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,487 · open −$1,219
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,487
Unrealized−$1,219
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage83d
Avg bet$737
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$780
7 days−$1,269
14 days−$1,269
30 days−$1,467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 15¢ $1,223 $4 −$1,219 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 45¢ $299 $0 −$299 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A FURIA 37¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 59¢ $1,966 $0 −$1,966 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Team Falcons 40¢ $185 $0 −$185 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs MOUZ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs magic 10¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $793 +$466 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,989 −$1,966 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $986 +$720 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $304 −$299 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $579 −$21 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $383 +$41 +11%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $303 +$229 +76%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $745 −$439 -59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $188 −$185 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $303 −$60 -20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $133 −$113 -85%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $309 +$161 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 22 $61 +$77 +126%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 21 $21 +$20 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% −$2,685
other 5% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 15¢ $1,254 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 86¢ $1,259 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 53¢ $793 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 19¢ $794 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 31¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 34¢ $1,438 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 71¢ $1,493 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $1,838 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $999 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $987 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $1,706 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 57¢ $986 32h
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 45¢ $304 4d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 53¢ $404 4d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 54¢ $423 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Spirit 100¢ $424 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 90¢ $383 5d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL TYLOO 100¢ $383 5d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 38¢ $148 5d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Astralis 62¢ $149 5d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 63¢ $154 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 54¢ $155 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 20¢ $306 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 47¢ $745 8d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 53¢ $4 10d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 53¢ $152 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $188 27d
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY magic $21 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 50% -28.5%
≤30d 12 -24.4% -31.6% 42% 42% -28.4%
≤90d 15 -11.4% -19.8% 47% 47% -28.1%
all 15 -11.4% -19.8% 47% 47% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 47% -28.1%
10% -27.5% 40% -35.0%
15% -34.5% 40% -41.3%
20% -40.9% 40% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.08 · official $4.08 (match) · 59 history records